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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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